World produces 11 million tons less grains

This is stated in the latest Market Grain Report from the International Grains Council.

It is now forecasted that the world will produce 2,038 million tons, a drop of 4% from the previous season’s record. Because of overly dry weather, including in North America, the EU and Australia, the outlooks for global maize (corn), wheat and barley harvests are revised lower.

With higher estimated opening inventories and a slight cut in projected demand, the figure for grains carryover stocks is only a little smaller m/m, but at 478mt is now seen contracting by 45m y/y (year-on-year). The forecast for trade is unchanged m/m at 349mt, only modestly below the peak of 2016/17. Reflecting continued large shipments to key markets, forecast soybean trade in 2016/17 is lifted to a peak of about 143mt, up by 7% y/y. Mainly on a downgrade to crop prospects in the USA, the Council’s outlook for global output in 2017/18 is cut slightly, to 345mt, down by 6m y/y but comfortably the second biggest outturn on record.