Amino acids markets: Uncertainty as Chinese lysine anti-dumping probe continues
During the EuroTier exhibition in Germany last week, where the whole global animal feed industry gathered, a main topic was the anti-dumping investigation for Chinese lysine into Europe. Which is leading to a lot of uncertainty and prices have started to firm in Europe, as non-Chinese suppliers are slowly returning. Learn more in this week’s feed additives snapshot (week 47).
In partnership with Feed Additive Prices
Overview Chinese markets
There is a significant price spread between Chinese and non-Chinese origin now, non-Chinese being more expensive. FOB China prices for threonine are slightly firmer. Prices in the USA for granular threonine are also firmer due to tight availability. Prices for threonine powder in Europe are weakening as supply is ample. Methionin remains weakish. Valine has stabilised at a low price level and even is showing a bit of increase in some regions. A potential intellectual property infringement case has started against a Chinese supplier. Another Chinese valine manufacturer stopped production as prices had become too low and they moved the valine fermentation capacity to threonine. Tryptophan is weak. Arginine seems to have stabilised at a low price level.
Lysine
The European market is still very uncertain, pending the investigation into the potential anti-dumping of Chinese lysine. This was a big topic during the EuroTier exhibition last week. Non-Chinese suppliers have regained some market share at higher prices and buyers are holding off for now on Chinese origin pending the investigation. There are some concerns about the availability of lysine in late Q1 and early Q2, as the question is whether non-Chinese can fill the gap in the pipeline in case the EU does impose anti-dumping duties. At the same time, market participants in the USA are anxious to learn what the Trump administration is going to do with amino acids ex China, in terms of import duties. Also, some local USA lysine production is said to be terminated in the near future. Especially in Europe, there is a wide range of prices seen for Q1 delivery. Chinese sources are under anti-dumping investigation and at the same time non-Chinese sources are returning to the EU market but with relatively high prices. The market is overall quiet and well contracted for Q4 and a good portion of Q1.
Threonine
Different dynamics are seen in the different regions. In the USA there is tension seen around threonine granular, while threonine powder in Europe is well available. In China, FOB prices have been increased recently, but it did not lead to more buying. Overall, very quiet market currently in most regions, except for the USA. Some suppliers have changed their production lines from valine to threonine fermentation output. Q4 is fully contracted, but Q1 not yet.
DL-Methionine
Slightly weaker prices again in Europe, while other regions seem mostly stable this week. The market seems well-supplied, but the trend feels weak. No nearby changes are expected. Q1 still needs to be contracted for the most part.
Tryptophan
The tryptophan market is overall weak. Supply is plentiful and prices continue to weaken in almost all regions for some months already. Both Chinese and non-Chinese manufacturers are competing for market share. No change is foreseen in this trend in short term. Q4 is mostly contracted, but Q1 is still mostly open.
Valine
Prices have stopped declining and there is even some price increase seen in some regions. One of the main Chinese manufacturers has stopped production and moved the valine line to threonine production, as the market price for valine became too low for them. Another Chinese manufacturer is said to be involved in an intellectual property discussion in Europe, initiated by a non-Chinese producer. Overall availability of valine is very good, so no significant price increase is expected. But any nearby price decline seems to be unrealistic. Market activity is seen now for Q1 in several regions.
