Feed additives market outlook 2023
The current state of the feed additive market may look rather negative, but it is realistic. Listening to a cross section of market participants, the remainder of 2023 is expected to be challenging as well. Although it does look like we have seen the bottom price now for most feed additives and most of the “bad news” is priced in.
As mentioned, energy prices have started to come down a lot and that is positive, although uncertain how it will develop as it is still highly subject to the geo-political situation. And container freight prices have mostly normalised as well. Market participants do not expect a significant further decline in compound feed production, although of course there may be regional differences, but also in 2023 they do not foresee an increase in consumption.
Suppliers resisting price levels
One of the things becoming a bit of a trend now in feed additive markets, is the stronger resistance from suppliers to the current price levels, both traders and manufacturers being stuck in unprofitable situations. This means that already today that more price increase announcements are been seen, or a complete temporary stop on offering material. Also happening is traditional summer plant maintenance being already planned in before the summer and the periods are extended in some cases. This is something that is expected more and more going forward in 2023, in an attempt to increase prices back to more healthier levels.
Demand needed to support price increase
Having said that, already a lot of long term contracts have been concluded by feed additive purchasers, into Q4 2023 in some cases, at the current low price levels as the risk of even lower prices has become manageable. That means there will most likely be little new additional demand and in the end demand is needed to support that price increase desire.
To summarise, and with the information available at time of going to print, it looks like a realistic scenario that key feed additives like vitamins and amino acids will remain low priced in the remainder of 2023, as no significant supply and demand balance shifts are foreseen. The demand side of things are not expected to change a lot on the short term and a real significant portion of the production capacity would have to be taken out, leading to potential disruption and that seems unlikely as well. So a stable to weakish market, with regular attempts to increase prices and a mostly unchanged S&D in 2023. It is worth zooming in on a few individual products on the feed additives markets.
DL-Methionine
As we speak the market has become quite active in some regions for Q3 purchasing. The price trend for methionine has been a declining one for months already as the market is in an oversupply situation. The global poultry growth projections have not been in line with the actual growth rates and at the same time new additional capacity came online and will come online in the near future. This led to very low market prices and now the main manufacturers are really starting to offer resistance and refusing to decrease the price further. Some price increase has even been seen. For now, that is working and prices stabilised and slightly increased and Q3 buying has become active. Prices FOB China are around USD$ 2/kg, in Europe around €2,10/kg DDP and in the US around US$ 2,80/kg DDP.
L-Threonine
Another example of the market turning around from a very low level towards at least a break-even situation for the manufacturers. Similar to methionine, also threonine manufacturers started to collectively show resistance to further price decrease and have increased prices. Which has recently led to a more stable and somewhat higher priced market as well. Prices in China around US$ 1,35/kg FOB, in Europe around €1,48/kg DDP and in the US around US$ 2/kg DDP.
Vitamin E & A
These two vitamins have a relatively high cost and nutritional impact on animal feed. Both products show a very similar pattern of constant price decline over the last year and less consumption compared to some years ago. Especially vitamin A1000 has reached a near all-time low market price of around US$ and € 20/kg in all regions. A lot of price resistance is seen from the manufacturers, but so far the weak trend has not broken yet. Same for vitamin E 50%, although that market price has not reached all-time lows, but it is slowly drifting lower. A announcement from one of the main manufacturers in China about upcoming extensive plant maintenance, did not do anything in the market so far. Vitamin E prices are around US$ 8,50/kg FOB China, in Europe around €7,60/kg DDP and in the US around US$ 8/kg DDP.
For detailed market and contract prices, market commentary and other data for a wide range of feed additives, visit www.feedadditiveprices.comhttps://feedadditiveprices.com/ .
