USDA Outlook: Coarse grains

Global coarse grain production is projected 5.8 million tons lower this
month, mostly reflecting adverse weather in southeastern Europe.

EU-27
corn output is lowered 6.8 million tons as extended drought and extreme heat in
late June and July devastated crops in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.

Corn production is projected lower for FSU-12, Bosnia, Croatia, and
Serbia, which were affected by similar weather conditions as the southeastern
portions of EU-27.

Ukraine barley production is also lowered 1.3 million
tons. Barley production for Canada is projected 0.5 million tons lower because
of record July heat that affected key growing areas in Alberta and
Saskatchewan.

US feed grains higher
The 2007/08 outlook for US
feed grains is for higher production and increased use as tighter world coarse
grain supplies boost export demand for US corn and sorghum.

USDA’s first
survey-based forecast for 2007 corn production is 13.1 billion bushels, up 214
million from last month’s projection. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million
bushels with the larger crop.

Corn exports are projected 150 million
bushels higher reflecting strong world demand as global production is projected
lower.

Ending stocks for US corn are projected at 1.5 billion bushels, up
14 million bushels from last month, and 379 million bushels higher than
projected for 2006/07.

The season-average farm price is projected at
$2.80 to $3.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

More sorghum
projected
The first survey-based forecast for 2007 sorghum production is
475 million bushels, up 45 million from last month. Projected exports for
2007/08 are raised 40 million bushels based on strong world demand for feed
grains and lower coarse grain production in EU-27.

The season-average
farm price is projected 20 $cents higher on both ends of the range to $2.60 to
$3.20 per bushel reflecting stronger expected export demand.

Global
coarse grains traffic
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2007/08
are both raised this month reflecting higher projected corn and sorghum trade
mostly in response to reduced EU-27 production.

EU-27 corn imports are
raised 2.5 million tons as reduced supplies and strong feeding demand are
expected to boost demand for imported corn. EU-27 sorghum imports are also
raised 1 million tons.

Global corn exports are projected 3.3-million-tons
higher with increased US exports more than offsetting reductions for Russia and
Serbia. Brazil corn exports are also raised 0.5 million tons. Global corn ending
stocks for 2007/08 are projected 6.1 million tons lower this month.

US
sorghum exports are raised 1 million tons mostly in response to stronger
expected demand from EU-27.

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