World coarse grain production prospects plummet
Global coarse grain production forecast for 2012/13 is down 48.0 million tonnes this month to 1,183.6 million, mostly due to sharply reduced prospects for US corn, according to the July 13 Feed Outlook of the US Department of Agriculture.
To put the US corn crop cut into perspective, this month’s decline is more than twice as big as Argentina’s entire last corn crop.
Foreign coarse grain production prospects for 2012/13 are also reduced this month, but not dramatically, down 2.1 million tonnes to 839.7 million.
Foreign corn production is projected up 1.5 million tonnes to 575.8 million, mostly due to expanded area planted in the EU, but barley prospects are cut 3.2 million tonnes mostly because of problems in Ukraine and Russia.
Foreign oats, millet, and rye are forecast slightly lower this month, but sorghum production projections are unchanged and mixed grain increased slightly.
EU corn up
EU corn production in 2012/13 is forecast to reach 65.5 million tonnes, up 1.3 million this month due to increased planted area reported for Greece, Poland, Hungary, Germany, the Czech Republic, France, and Slovakia.
Yield prospects are increased slightly for Poland but trimmed for Greece, Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, based on recent temperatures and precipitation.
Increased corn area planted is also reported for Canada, boosting production prospects 0.4 million tonnes to 13.0 million.
However, corn yields in Peru are reported lower, trimming projected production 0.2 million tonnes to 1.6 million.
Good second Brazil corn crop
The second-crop corn in Brazil is still being finalized, and the late rains boosted yields more than previously forecast, increasing corn production 1.0 million tonnes this month to 70.0 million.
Based on recent competitive pricing, 2011/12 exports are increased 2.0 million tonnes to a forecast record 14.0 million.
For the October-September trade years, both 2011/12 and 2012/13 are raised 1.0 million tonnes. This leaves Brazil’s 2011/12 ending stocks down 1.0 million tonnes to 13.1 million.
India’s corn exports for 2011/12 are raised 1.4 million tonnes this month to 3.8 million, as increased world prices have shifted corn from domestic use to exports.
Barley production reduced
Barley production in Ukraine for 2012/13 is reduced 1.5 million tonnes to 6.0 million. Poor fall emergence and severe winter cold contributed to winter-kill and area abandonment of winter barley.
A hot, dry spring in Southern Ukraine has reduced yield prospects. In Russia, barley production is cut 1.0 million tonnes this month to 15.5 million.
According to planting progress reports, spring barley planted area did not expand as much as earlier expected.
Also, dry hot weather in parts of the Volga District reduced expected yields for both barley and millet.
These unfavourable growing conditions extend into Northwestern Kazakhstan, reducing barley yield prospects and trimming production 0.2 million tonnes to 1.8 million.
A Statistics Canada survey revealed lower than expected barley area planted. Although favourable early growing conditions boost yield prospects slightly, 2012/13 production is forecast down 0.5 million tonnes to 8.5 million.
Oats and rye area are also reported lower, trimming oats production 0.3 million tonnes to 3.0 million, and reducing rye prospects slightly. Canadian mixed grain area is up, boosting production by a small amount.
High prices reduce consumption forecasts
High grains prices, lead by strong US corn prices, are expected to reduce coarse grain use, both for the United States and foreign countries.
World coarse grain disappearance is forecast down 25.3 million tonnes to 1,180.9 million, with a large drop in US use.
Foreign coarse grain use for 2012/13 is projected down 6.7 million tonnes this month to 886.2 million. Half of the reduction, 3.4 million tonnes, is in foreign feed and residual use, with the balance in food, seed, and industrial use.
Foreign corn use is reduced 3.7 million tonnes to 618.1 million, but feed use is trimmed only 0.9 million tonnes to 414.0.
Foreign barley disappearance is projected down 2.8 million tonnes this month, with most of the decline in feed. There are also small declines for oats, millet, and rye, but a slight increase in projected mixed grain use.
More information can also be found at the Feed Grains Database, which contains monthly, quarterly, and annual data on prices, supply, and use of corn and other feed grains.
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