Canada: Grain & oilseed prices expected to moderate

“The forecast for 2012 reflects that farm incomes are once again at an all-time high,” said Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz. “The outlook shows that global demand for agricultural commodities will be driven by growth in developing economies, which is why our government continues to place such a strong emphasis on opening new and maintaining existing markets.”

The three new reports, the Farm Income Forecast for 2012 and 2013, the Medium Term Outlook, and the Farm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Assistance Data Book 2012, provide an overview of the financial and market outlook for the sector and offer a benchmark for producers, industry stakeholders, and governments as they plan for the years ahead.

Highlights

• The Farm Income Forecast report highlights that farmers are prospering from continued high commodity and livestock prices. The sector will once again report record-high income levels for 2012 and can count on a continued positive outlook for 2013.
• When the final figures are in for 2012, net cash income for the entire sector is expected to rise 14% to $13.1 billion, which is a new record income level, and remain at a near record in 2013 of $12.9 billion.
• While performance varies by sector, the average net operating income for Canadian farms is expected to reach a new record of $74,190 in 2012, 17 per cent greater than the 2011 level and 50 per cent above the 2007–11 average. The net worth of an average farm is forecast to grow by 8% cent in 2012 to reach $1.8 million.
• Average total income of farm families, which includes family income from all farm and non-farm sources, is projected to reach $127,106 in 2012, 8% above 2011 levels.
• Over the medium term, strong global demand, particularly from major emerging economies, will underpin continued strong prices and growth for the sector.
• Assuming normal weather conditions, Canadian grains and oilseeds prices are expected to moderate from 2012 peaks but remain at higher than historical levels over the medium term. While cattle and hog sectors will see modest growth, a strong Canadian dollar and higher feed grain prices will remain challenges going forward.

For more information on the Farm Income Forecast for 2012 and 2013, the Medium Term Outlook, and the Farm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Assistance Data Book 2012, please visit Economic and Market Information.