Drought reduces EU cereals production

Total EU cereals production is estimated to fall by 5.4%, down from 282.2 mt
last year to 266.8 mt in 2006/07, while overall yields are expected to drop from
4.81t per hectare to 4.71t per hectare. This drop in production and yield is
seen across the board; soft wheat, for instance, will see a fall in production
of 6.5% with a reduced yield of 5.34t per hectare compared to 5.50t per ha last
year. Copa-Cogeca forecasts that even greater production losses will be true of
maize, rye, oats and triticale, with falls in production of 8.4%, 16.9%, 1.8%
and 15.8% respectively.

These falls in production and yield are felt
throughout the EU. Production of soft wheat, for example, is expected to fall
from 5.0mt in 2005/06 to 4.4mt in 2006/07 in Hungary and from 8.8mt to 7.1mt in
Poland, the largest producers in the new member states.

Similar losses
are forecast in France and Germany, with Copa-Cogeca estimating that the former
will see a reduction in production from 34.9mt to 33.1 mt, while Germany can
expect a fall from 23.6mt to 22.4mt in the production of soft wheat.

Increased barley output
Barley seems, however, to be made of
sterner stuff and production is forecast to increase by 2% in the whole of the
EU, up from 54.8 mt in 2005/06 to 55.9 mt a year later. Spain and France are
both expected to see an increase in the production of this crop, up from 4.5 mt
to 8.3 mt, and up from 10.4 mt to 10.5 mt respectively. However, Germany and
Poland are forecast to see a fall in the production of barley, with a reduction
from 11.6 mt to 12.1 mt in the former and from 3.6 mt to 3.2 mt in Poland.