Global wheat forecast slightly raised

Reduction of crop forecast in Afghanistan (minus 0.6 million tonnes) was more
than offset with increases in Argentina and FSU-12. Production for Argentina is
raised 0.5 million tonnes based on higher harvested area. FSU-12 output is
raised 0.9 million tonnes with increases for Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine,
all based on post-harvest revisions to yields.

Lower
stocks
Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are lowered 1.2 million tonnes.
At 109.7 million tonnes, stocks are projected to reach their lowest level in 30
years.
Lower ending stocks in Canada, FSU-12, and the United States are only
partly offset by higher stocks in Australia. Ending stocks are raised 0.7
million tonnes for Australia based on higher production and carryout from
2006/07. Australia production for 2006/07 is raised to 10.6 million tonnes from
9.9 million based on the latest estimates by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics.

Coarse grains
World coarse grain supplies for
2007/08 are projected slightly higher this month as lower corn production is
more than offset by higher sorghum, oats, and rye production. Corn production is
lowered 1.0 million tonnes for Argentina as extended dryness during the first
weeks of January reduced yield prospects.

Corn production for Mexico is
lowered 0.7 million tonnes based on lower harvested area. South Africa corn
output is raised 1.0 million tonnes as nearly ideal planting and early growing
season weather have supported crop development.

Sorghum production is
raised for Mexico on higher area. Sorghum production is increased for Australia
on higher expected yields as rains over the past several weeks have dramatically
improved growing conditions for summer crops there.

Oats and rye
production are raised for Russia based on the latest government statistics. A
number of small changes to individual country production estimates leave global
barley output virtually unchanged this month.

Oilseeds
Global
oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 390.3 million tonnes, up 0.6
million tonnes from last month. Higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonneseed
production more than offset reduced soybean production. Global soybean
production is reduced 0.3 million tonnes to 220.1 million tonnes. Bolivia’s
soybean crop is reduced 0.3 million tonnes reflecting excessive rains and
flooding that have reduced projected harvested area and yields.

Global
rapeseed production is raised 0.2 million tonnes to 48.5 million due to larger
projected crops for EU-27 and India. While harvested area is projected higher
for both, the area increase for India is partly offset by lower yields.

Global sunflowerseed production is projected higher due to increases for
Argentina and Ukraine.

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