Grain prices rise after publication of Wasde report

On Wednesday 13 January, the wheat quotation on the Paris futures market skyrocketed, after the USDA published its new Wasde report (January) on Tuesday, 12 January. The first expiring meal wheat contract (March) closed on Tuesday at € 224.50 per ton and shot up to € 230 per ton on Wednesday. The September contract, for the new harvest, increased to € 200 per ton on 13 January. This is the highest level this September contract has reached.

The USDA estimates global wheat production for the 2020-21 season at 772.6 million tons, and this includes China. This is 1 million tons less than last month. Consumption is increasing, and as a result, the closing stock has been adjusted downwards by more than 3 million tons to 313.2 million tons of wheat. In addition, the wheat price increase is supported by rumours that Russia wants to increase export tax. So far, it is not clear whether this will actually happen.

Lower corn supply

For corn, the world production has also been revised downwards by the USDA for the 2020-21 season by nearly 10 million tons to 1,134 million tons, which includes China. A smaller acreage in the United States and unfavourable weather in South-American countries are the main reasons for these downward adjustments. The corn quotations on the Chicago futures market rose sharply yesterday. Despite the higher Chinese closing stock of maize, the global closing stock is declining more sharply than previously assumed due to lower production.