US revises its raw materials projections
USDA recently issued revised projections for the 2006-2007 maize and soybeans. This is necessarry due to the higher demand for raw materials, primarly for the ethanol industry.
2005-2006 season with 318.1 million metric tons available. Feed and industrial
uptake will increase by 5% but diversion to ethanol will escalate by 35%,
representing 17% of the anticipated supply.
Maize exports will show a
moderate increase of 5%. The net result of increased demand relative to supply
will be a 50% reduction in ending stock to 23.4 million metric tons and a
commensurate increase in average farm price by 30% to €94.80/metric
ton.
More soybeans in 2007
The total supply of
soybeans will increase by almost 10% as a result of a 5% increase in area
planted but with no increase in average yield. It is anticipated that domestic
use of soybeans for feed and industry will increase by less than 1% allowing for
a 21% increase in exports. The average price of soybeans for the 2006-2007
harvest will be approximately 3% lower than the previous year at € 220.60/metric
ton. (Simon Shane)
Forecast values for
production and disposition covering the 2006-2007 growing season are tabulated
below:
Maize |
Soybeans
Planted
31.44 m Ha
30.24 m Ha
Yield
9.43 mtons/Ha
1.17 mtons/Ha
Production + Inventory
318.1 m mtons
99.5 m mtons
Animal Feed
151.2 m mtons
—
Industrial & Domestic use
88.5 m mtons
4.6 m mtons
Ethanol production (maize)
53.8 m mtons
—
Crushing and extraction (soy)
—
48.4 m mtons
Exports
55.0 m mtons
31.1 m mtons
End Stock
23.4 m mtons
15.4 m mtons
Average Forecast ex-Farm Price
€94.80 / mton
€220.60/mton
Conversion factors: 1 bu. Maize = 25.0 kg 1 bu. soybeans = 27.2
kg
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