World wheat harvest: who has the best guess?

IGC said farmers will harvest 664m tonnes of wheat in 2010-11, adding 4m tonnes to its previous forecast.

 

This is in contrast to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, who earlier this month cut 3.7m tonnes from its estimate for the world wheat crop, taking it to 668.5m tonnes

 

This estimate came before the Canadian Wheat Board astonished markets by forecasting that Canadian plantings of the grain would be the lowest in 39 years.

 

IN contrast Rabobank said this week that, because of Canada’s plight and winterkill rates in the Black Sea states, the USDA estimate was some 8m tonnes too high.

 

The IGC acknowledged the threat to Canada’s harvest posed by poor sowings, and cut the country’s exports forecast by 1.5m tonnes to 19.2m tonnes, but said that prospects improved in the US, China, Australia and Iran.

 

Nonetheless, it left unchanged its estimate of world inventories at the end of 2010-11, citing the prospect of higher demand for wheat, and indeed other grains, by livestock farmers, notably in Asia.

 

"Renewed strength in the global animal feed sector in response to rising meat consumption is expected to boost feed use of grains to a record."