Climate said to have aided Brazil’s forecasts for record breaking grain production
A new forecast has estimated that Brazilian farmers will harvest 322.3 million tonnes of grains in the 2024/25 season, representing an 8.2% increase (or 24.5 million tonnes) compared to the previous season.
The new estimate from the National Supply Company (Conab) maintains the forecast of a record-breaking production in the historical series if the projections are right by July. The highest historical result was in the 2022/2023 season, with 320.9 million tonnes. The projection includes soybeans, maize, rice, beans, wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peanuts, and other less significant crops.
This strong performance comes from favourable weather conditions during the development of first-season crops. Thanks to mild winters in most of the country, Brazil can achieve up to 3 harvests in the same area within 12 months.
In addition, the total planted area will cover 81.4 million hectares, 1.8% larger than the 2023/24 cycle. It is worth noting that the country effectively uses about 53 million hectares, as 28 million hectares are reused for second or third harvests each year.
Soybeans
The primary crop grown in the country, soybeans, is expected to yield 166.33 million tonnes, 18.61 million tonnes more than the total produced in the previous season. After a year of harvest losses, the current cycle is likely to recover the average productivity of the fields. Productivity can reach an average yield of 3,509 kilograms per hectare, compared to 3,201 kg/ha recorded in 2023/24.
The planting of soybeans occurred mainly from late October onwards. Consequently, the bulk of the harvest is about to begin at the end of this month. This concentration of harvesting at the end of January is already causing concerns in the domestic market about potential logistical bottlenecks, both in transportation and storage.
Weather conditions during the period have generally favoured soybean cultivation across most of the country. However, Rio Grande do Sul, the fourth-largest producing state, is facing a lack of rainfall.
With the recovery in soybean harvests this cycle, Conab also forecasts an increase in exports this year. For the 2024/25 season, international sales of soybeans can reach 105.47 million tonnes.
Exports of soybean meal remain at 22 million tonnes, while soybean oil exports are projected at 1.4 million tonnes.
Maize
With the second-largest production volume, maize is expected to yield a total harvest of 119.6 million tonnes in 2024/25, 3.3% higher than the previous season. For the first corn harvest, Conab forecasts a 6.4% reduction in planted area. On the other hand, average productivity might grow by 4.8%, reaching 6,062 kilograms per hectare. Frequent rainfall, interspersed with sunny periods, has favoured crop development in key producing regions. As a result, farmers shall harvest 22.53 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, planting the second and the third maize harvests begins this month and in April, respectively.
For the 2024/25 season, international sales are projected at 34 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 86.4 million tonnes. With increased production, stock levels may recover, closing at 3.5 million tonnes at the end of the current cycle. That ensures domestic supply, particularly for the animal protein sector.
