Global grain markets are experiencing price pressure this season due to cheap supplies from Ukraine and Russia. In the European Union, this effect is reinforced by faltering exports.
Romania is making good progress in wheat exports, but France and Germany in particular are currently exporting much less wheat to third countries.
The Romanians managed to double their wheat exports in the first half of the season to around 4.1 million tons. This means that Romania is exporting more wheat than France this season. The French see their exports more than halved to less than 3.4 million tons. Germany is booking a third fewer export orders to countries outside the EU, meaning exports from that country remain at less than 1.4 million tonnes.
Russia is much more successful on the international market. Russian exports moderated slightly at the end of 2023 due to government intervention in grain prices and stormy weather in the Black Sea. Nevertheless, exports in December will not have been much less than 4 million tons. This makes wheat exports from Russia double the amount that left the EU in that month.
Russia is therefore a major obstacle for the EU on the international market. In addition, grain growers in the EU also suffer a lot from wheat from Ukraine. A significant portion of this wheat finds its way to the EU. As a result, EU imports have already increased to 5 million tons this season, which is considerably more than last year, when a lot of wheat was also imported. About two-thirds of the wheat that flows into the EU comes from Ukraine. This large supply comes into a market that is already struggling with sales to third countries. This therefore creates additional price pressure.