Rapeseed is suffering from a weaker soy market
A weaker soy market is dragging rapeseed prices down at the beginning of this week.
Better weather prospects in the Midwest of the United States are putting soybean sales under pressure. Soy processors surprised the market with a higher processing figure than expected, but this does not lead to higher prices on the stock exchange screens.
Trading in August rapeseed contracts on the Paris futures market closed €11.00 lower on Monday at €457 per tonne. This means the price is a lot lower than in recent weeks. In the second half of May, a price of €500.00 still seemed within reach.
Rapeseed harvest prospects
Meanwhile, the harvest prospects for oilseed rape are not improving. The European grain trade organisation Coceral lowers its forecast for rapeseed in the EU to 18.5 million tons, 8% (1.7 million tons) less than last year. This new figure also represents a reduction of 0.6 million tonnes compared to the previous estimate in March.
France
Especially in France, the harvest seems to be lower than expected a few months ago. The new estimate assumes a hectare yield of 3 tons per hectare, more than 10% lower than the forecast in March. Covering an area of more than 1.3 million hectares, this makes a big difference for the EU.
Romania
In March it was already clear that Romania is making a significant reduction in rapeseed, due to fewer hectares sown.
Less rapeseed in Ukraine
To meet rapeseed needs, the EU will be more dependent on imports in the 2024-2025 season. This will initially look at Ukraine, because that country was the most important supplier last year. However, lower yields in Ukraine will force EU processors to look at rapeseed availability elsewhere.
The European Commission’s JRC research committee expects a 12% decline in production in Ukraine compared to last year. Area and yield show comparable decreases of 6 to 7%. Yield prospects are lower, especially in southern Ukraine. Rapeseed in the Odessa and Mikolaiv regions is severely affected by the drought during flowering.
According to JRC’s estimate, total production remains at just under 4 million tons. This forecast is lower than that of the Ukrainian grain organization UGA, which expected a harvest of 4.3 million tons at the end of last month.
