Ukrainian grain industry shows resilience in the face of challenges
Ukraine has already harvested 76 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, noticeably less compared with 81 million tonnes in the previous year. However, farmers consider the result to be good, considering this year’s abnormal weather conditions and a loss of territory.
In particular, the country harvested 22.4 million tonnes of wheat, 5.6 million tonnes of barley, and 24.2 million tonnes of corn, the Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Ministry said in a statement.
The result is a big relief, as in the second half of 2024, Ukrainian agriculture was hit with some of the worst droughts in the past few years. The All-Ukrainian Agricultural Rada, a union of farmers, warned earlier this year that the harvest of corn and sunflower can plummet by 35%.
However, the gloomy forecasts were not destined to come true. Still, the future looks challenging.
Wheat production bounces back
In 2025, wheat production could climb to 25 million tonnes, as the sowing area could be set to rise to 5 million ha, against 4.6 million ha this year, the Ministry forecasted.
As indicated by Taras Vysotsky, Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Ministry, Ukrainian wheat production can reach the lower threshold of the pre-war level when the wheat harvest ranges between 25 and 28 million tonnes per year.
The sowing area under wheat production is expanding at the expense of soybeans. This year, Vysotsky claimed, the Ukrainian market experienced an oversupply of soybeans. In 2025, the planting area in this segment is set to shrink by 500,000 ha.
Losing ground
Ukraine’s overall planting area may slightly decline in 2025 as Russian troops advance in the eastern regions.
Russian forces had taken 600 sq km in November, the Ukrainian sources estimated. In recent weeks, the pace of Russian advances has been some of the highest since the onset of the conflict in 2022.
According to military bloggers, there is a high probability that the hostilities will reach a new region in the coming few months. As of late November, the Russian troops were standing only 6 to 12 km away from the border of the Dnipro region.
Looming blackouts
The next year’s grain production forecast can also be impacted by the threat of blackouts. Farmers brace for the worst, as under the worst scenarios, some regions of the country could be left for days without energy.
“We are expecting a very harsh winter,” admits Dmitry Skornyakov, CEO of the agricultural holding HarvEast, “Energy will be critical. I have purchased either generators or batteries [to be used] everywhere. We should prepare for a tough scenario.”
