Wheat prices – slightly under pressure
A smooth start to the winter wheat harvest in the United States is keeping the market under pressure. In addition, the state of spring wheat in the US is much better than a year ago. The winter wheat crop status is rated slightly better than analysts had expected prior to the announcement.
These signals put some pressure on the wheat market, although the shifts are marginal. The September contract for wheat on the Paris futures market closed slightly lower on Tuesday, June 4, at €258.50 per tonne. The same goes for the December contract that ended that day at €264 per tonne.
Processing figures is not going so well
A slightly higher harvest estimate for wheat in India also does not contribute to a further increase in the wheat market. The country’s agriculture ministry predicts a harvest of 112.9 million tons. That quantity is almost 1 million tons greater than the previous estimate. The result of this is that India’s import needs will be smaller than previously anticipated.
The price increase that started a month and a half ago has not made EU wheat more competitive. That is why orders from North Africa still regularly pass by the EU, because grain from the Black Sea region (Ukrainian and Russian wheat) is usually offered at a more competitive price.
According to the latest figures from the European Commission, the EU has exported 28.2 million tonnes of soft wheat so far. That is 1.4 million tons less than in the same period last year. It should be noted that these are provisional figures and that the processing of the figures is not going so well this year.
It can be assumed that the difference with last year is not that big. For example, EU figures report that France has exported 8.1 million tons of wheat, while traders assume that exports actually amount to 9 million tons.
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