Is the goal of feed self-sufficiency achievable?

03-11-2023 | Market trends | Article

According to Dr Nicolas Navarre of Leiden University, Argentina could feed itself with just 5.5% of its land, Sweden, USA and Canada 12-13%, Ireland about 15%, and Finland 18%. Photo: Koos Groenewold

A look at strategies, current and future, for countries around the world with particular emphasis on China and Norway.

With Covid and the Ukraine-Russia war wreaking havoc on grain supply chains – in addition to the ongoing usual trade disputes and global drought hotspots that shift from year to year around the world – more countries are now looking at how self sufficiency might be achieved with livestock/aquaculture feed in the years or decades to come.

Feed security is of course tied to protein food security, so the goal of feed security is seen by the leaders of many countries as quite important. However, in smaller and dryer countries at their present population levels, feed security is not possible in the short term. However, it could be achieved in the future with strategies such as algae production for aquaculture feed, people eating less meat, using aquaponics and other solutions. But some larger countries are also finding it difficult to produce more feed. Having enough water, land, energy and labour are among the toughest challenges.

And whether feed self-sufficiency (again, tied to protein food security) should be a strict goal is debatable. That is, to prepare for inevitable years of drought, other natural disasters or conflicts, maintaining healthy grain trading/import relationships seems to be a smart idea.

Still, feed self-sufficiency is very much in focus for many countries as at least an ideal that may one day be reached.

Country specifics

As mentioned, feed self-sufficiency is generally more difficult in smaller countries, but it is also hampered in some larger countries by arid climates, mountainous terrain and large populations, etc. Large countries such as Canada, Russia, New Zealand, Australia and Brazil grow enough crops for their own feed needs and also export substantial amounts.

In addition, some countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina also have areas of marginal land where cattle, bison, sheep and goats etc. can be grazed to meet most feed requirements. According to Dr Nicolas Navarre at Leiden University in the Netherlands, Argentina could feed itself with just 5.5% of its land, Sweden, USA and Canada 12-13%, Ireland about 15% and Finland 18%.

Japan has a goal of 45% food self-sufficiency on a calorie basis by 2030, but in a new Statista report, it’s noted that “in fiscal year 2022, the self-sufficiency ratio of animal feed in Japan was estimated to stay the same as the previous fiscal year, at 26%, implying that animal feed demand in the country was mainly – as in all previous years – met through imports.”

CHINA’S PLAN FOR FOOD PROTEIN SELF-SUFFICIENCY

A few years ago, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released a national 5-year plan to domestically produce 95% of food protein for its citizens. As explained by Genevieve Donnellon-May (a research analyst at the Oxford Global Society) in a recent article, Chinese citizens consume almost a third of the world’s meat (half the world’s pork), and although its pig production has been decimated by African swine fever, it is rebounding. China is also the world’s fourth-largest dairy producer.

Increasing domestic animal feed production

To achieve its food protein self-sufficiency targets, said Donnellon-May, China will probably have to increase its animal feed production. She noted that “the Chinese central authorities are further encouraging domestic production through a new grain security law, annual grain production targets, planting acreage targets and the expansion of growing areas, but adds that

China’s push for greater self-sufficiency in protein and dairy may result in even greater imports of grains.

^{Genevieve Donnellon-May, a research analyst at the Oxford Global Society}

Self-sufficient in maize by 2030

However, gains in crop yields are expected to continue to increase, boosting domestic feed production in China and other countries where it’s feasible to grow feed crops. In a May 2023 paper in the journal Nature, scientists at China Agricultural University, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and the Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute in Australia claim that China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030, with large amounts of the maize being used for animal feed.

This team combined data-driven projections with a machine learning method to analyse data from 402 experimental stations and 87 field experiments across China. They conclude that “current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement …This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas.”

They add, “our results challenge the view that grain yields have reached an attainable maximum in most global areas.”

Feed self-sufficiency through increased use of PAP

Crops aside, there is room across all countries for more processed animal protein (PAP) to be used in livestock feed. Its nutritional values continue to be researched in the wake of a ban in Europe and other countries after mad cow disease was discovered decades ago.

As noted by EFPRA, which represents the European animal by-product industry, past years of banning PAP in feed has resulted in pet food being a key market for PAP. Use of PAP in aquaculture is growing in Europe, and a comeback of its use across feed for other livestock types is expected.

NORWAY’S VIEW

A group of scientists at SINTEF, one of Europe’s largest independent research organisations based in Norway, has completed several analyses for Norway in the past few years of the opportunities for producing enough feed for all its livestock and farmed fish domestically.

Most animal protein produced in Norway is salmon for export, with some subsidised land dedicated to livestock production (dairy cattle, beef cattle and pigs) for domestic consumption.

Currently, two-thirds of the raw materials for Norway’s salmon feed comes from the southern hemisphere, which involves a lot of carbon and cost to transport. Photo: Canva

Need for technological or genetic breakthroughs

However, “our conclusion is that we cannot ever be self-sufficient without unprecedented technological or genetic breakthroughs,” says the main author of the analysis, Dr Karl Almås. “We could get to half by 2050, which would be an impressive achievement because that year we aim to have increased salmon production from 1.4 million tonnes per year today to 5 million tonnes per year. By 2050, this will require around 2 million tonnes of feed protein for the aquaculture sector alone annually. Today, we use about a sixth of that, around 350,000 tonnes of feed protein, in the form of concentrated feed for land-based livestock and about 700,000 tonnes of feed protein for aquaculture.”

Producing enough salmon feed to match growing demand

Dr Ida Grong Aursand, who published with Almås a report in June 2023 entitled ‘Salmon Feed Raw Materials: A Roadmap to Industrial Production in Norway,’ adds that “we can actually be self sufficient in protein if we continue with today’s salmon production volumes.” “However, as the government has ambitions for the salmon sector to grow up to a production of 5 million tonnes of salmon in 2050 (that’s annual growth of 4.4%), we think a scenario in which we produce 50% of the feed in Norway is realistic.” Currently, around 180,000 tonnes of this feed protein are produced in Norway and most of it, around 110,000 tonnes, is in the form of grain raw materials for concentrated livestock feed.

Development and industrialisation of Norway’s land and marine resources

But the SINTEF team believes that with strong development and industrialisation of Norway’s land and marine resources, using a little bit of everything, the country can manage to produce 489,000 tonnes of feed protein for land livestock by 2030 and 700,000 tonnes in 2050. Also, about 50% feed self-sufficiency for aquaculture can be achieved if a Norwegian fermentation industry is established for the production of single cell protein.

Increasing salmon production: It must be green

While leaders in the government have walked back on Norway having the goal to produce all its feed, there are other issues. “They are concerned about how the sustainability of the growing salmon industry will be enhanced, an industry which provides many jobs, while also increasing the sustainability of our land-based livestock production which feeds the population,” says Grong Aursand. “Oil production, which built this country, is declining and so, while we intend to increase salmon production, it must be green.”

Reducing salmon mortality

To produce more salmon with less feed, salmon genetics will continue to improve a little in terms of higher feed conversion, but Grong Aursand says it’s most important to focus on reducing mortality. “It’s currently at almost 17% and of course, when a fish dies, all the feed it consumed is lost,” she explains. “The regulations are that the carcasses are treated as garbage and are thus not salvageable for making into feed. Most of the mortality is due to sea lice, treatments for sea lice and also when fish are moved from land farms to sea pens.”

Majority of salmon feed imported

Currently, two-thirds of the raw material for Norway’s salmon feed comes from the southern hemisphere, which involves a lot of carbon and cost to transport: wild-caught anchovies off South America, wheat and fava beans from Brazil and other countries, and soybeans from Brazil. “We don’t grow soybeans here but we could start,” says Grong Aursand. “We could use PAP for salmon production, which right now goes into pet food. There is also the opportunity to grow the production of polychaetes, insects and gammaridaes on land, and tunicates, macroalgae and mussels etc. in the sea. Single-cell protein is a very good solution for producing more protein domestically for salmon feed, with the inputs being CO₂ and light. We also have a large new project here looking at growing algae from CO₂ and heat from the metallurgic industry using light as an energy source, but it’s not easy to work out how to do this well.”

Opportunities for domestically produced feed

As in other countries, Norway will continue its research into producing more feed protein while watching the developments worldwide. Looking forward, Almås says there are about 25 different raw materials for feed continually being evaluated. “The strategy must be further development of some of them,” he says. “If we have to pick 3 as a priority, these are single -cell protein production, harvesting marine raw materials on lower trophic levels than fish and the utilisation of meat processing waste.”