Russia braced for further decline in grain production in 2025
Russian grain production may drop below 120 million tonnes, which would be the lowest level since 2018. A mix of factors can contribute to the negative dynamics.
In 2024, Russia produced 128.8 million tonnes of grain, 13% down compared with the previous year, the Russian Agricultural Ministry calculated. The output declined for the second consecutive year after reaching an all-time height of 157.6 million in 2022.
In 2025, the figure could dive below 120 million tonnes, forecasted Petr Chekmarev, chairman of the agricultural committee of the Russian Industrial and Trade Chamber.
The last time Russian grain production was that low was in 2018, when the harvest totalled 112 million tonnes. Since then, Russian feed production has expanded from 28.8 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes in 2024, as estimated by the Russian Union of Feed Producers.
Unpredictable weather
Last year, the Russian grain harvest was largely hit by weather abnormalities, and in 2025, the industry will be braced for new blows from the environment, Chekmarev said.
The Russian Grain Union projected that this year’s harvest would be close to 125 million tonnes. Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Grain Union, also asserted that much will depend on the weather conditions during the spring months and the content of moisture in the soil during this period.
Profitability woes
In addition, weak profitability hampers investments in Russian grain production. “We did not receive any profit from grain production in 2024. The profitability was rather equal to zero or negative. Naturally, farmers are not as interested in growing grain crops as before.”
Negative profitability is one of the factors dragging production performance down. During 2024, the Russian Grain Union repeatedly warned that rising costs, coupled with export duties on grain and rising taxation in the industry, force farmers to revise their operation practices. As a result, farmers start using less fertilisers and plant protection agents and delay plans to modernise the fleet of agricultural machinery, the Grain Union representatives warned.
The worrying tendency seems to continue in 2025. As estimated by Chekmarev, Russian farmers purchased 70,000 less fertilisers than on the same date of the previous year.
Switch to domestic seeds
In addition, Chekmarev noted, “not everyone opts for purchasing highly-productive seeds,” which is also an important component contributing to high yields.
In 2022, the Russian government embarked on an import-replacement programme for the domestic seeds market. The authorities encourage farms to switch to domestic seeds, though farmers complain that their quality is often inferior compared to imported products.
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