US corn exports to hit a new record

The US marketing year is also a record at 2.45 billion bushels, up 100
million bushels this month. The early-season pace of US corn sales and shipments
has been strong, and reduced competition and strong demand are projected this
month. Increased exports were the only change in projected US supply and use
this month resulting in a corresponding 100 million bushel decrease in ending
stocks.

Corn, sorghum, and barley prices were raised this month
reflecting strong demand for grains. Projected prices for corn and barley are at
record levels, surpassing their previous records in
1995/96.

Argentina keeps exports low
Argentina is the
second largest exporter of corn and has a strong influence on US exports.
Argentina’s government has been keeping export registrations for corn closed,
thereby limiting corn exports and keeping a lid on prices in Argentina.

The government of Argentina is expected to continue to use export
registrations and export taxes to maintain higher stocks than the free market
would otherwise dictate. No changes were made this month to forecasts for other
major corn exporters, but China’s corn exports are expected to be limited by
concerns about internal prices, and most of Brazil’s exports are expected to go
to the EU-27, leaving the United States with limited competition in many
markets.

Buying in advance
The early pace of US 2007/08 corn
sales and shipments has been very strong. According to U.S. Census data, October
2007 corn exports were up almost 20% over those of the previous year. Export
sales shipment data indicate November 2007 corn exports topped 6 million tonnes,
up over 1 million from those of the previous year.

Moreover, at the end
of November, outstanding export sales of corn reached 19 million tonnes,
compared to 11 million tonnes a year ago. Census plus Exports Sales data
indicate commitments up 10 million tonnes over those of a year ago. With exports
forecast to increase only 6 million tonnes, importers are believed to be buying
ahead more this year than last to assure supplies.

Global stocks
reduced
World coarse grains consumption in 2007/08 is projected up 2.8
million tonnes this month to 1,056.4 million tonnes. Global corn use is forecast
up 3.6 million tonnes to a record 766.4 million tonnes, but tight supplies are
reducing prospects for barley consumption. In Canada, corn feed use is projected
up 1.1 million tonnes due to increased corn production and reduced forecast
feeding of barley and wheat.

Increased production is also boosting feed
use of corn in Russia and Belarus. Strong reported feed demand in South Africa,
also boosted consumption prospects for 2007/08. Corn feeding is also raised for
Saudi Arabia, reflecting tighter world barley supplies. World coarse grain
ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected down 2.3 million tonnes this month to
133.0 million tonnes. The largest decline, 1.3 million tonnes, is for corn,
but barley, oats, and sorghum are also reduced. World coarse grain ending stocks
are projected at the lowest level since 1977/78, when global use was less than
two-thirds the use projected for 2007/08.

For the full December outlook
of ERS click here 

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