Forecast: Cereal markets in 2017/18

Nearly all of the decrease in world cereal production from last year reflects an anticipated fall in the wheat output to 740 million tonnes, representing a 2.7% (20.3 million tonnes) decline from 2016.

Smaller projected outputs in Australia, Canada and the United States, due mainly to price-induced planting cuts, account for most of this decline. While smaller harvests are also anticipated in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, a strong rebound in production is projected for the EU and Morocco.

By contrast, total production of coarse grains in 2017 is provisionally put at a new record level of 1 353 million tonnes, up 0.5% (6.4 million tonnes) year-on-year. Most of the anticipated increase would reflect a higher maize output, which, at 1,051 million tonnes, would stand 1.2% (12.8 million tonnes) above last year’s record. The increase would mostly stem from a surge in production in Brazil as well as Argentina, coupled with a significant rebound in South Africa’s production from the drought-reduced level of 2016. However, a large proportion of this increase is expected to be negated by a downturn in the United States, where maize production is expected to fall sharply from the record high of 2016.

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