Latest wheat and grain forecasts for 2016/17

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 1.3 million tons on a production increase that is only partially offset by lower beginning stocks. The largest increases are for Argentina, Russia, and the EU. Global exports are raised 1.2 million tons led by increases for Argentina, Australia, and the EU. Partly offsetting is a reduction in Canadian exports reflecting the slow shipment pace so far this year. Global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.1 million tons with increased food use partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. With total global supplies increasing faster than use, ending stocks are increased 1.2 million tons to a new record of 253.3 million.

Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecasted to be 1.7 million tons lower to 1,327.7 million. This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, higher consumption, and increased trade relative to last month. Serbia corn production is raised reflecting the latest information from the Foreign Agricultural Service office in Belgrade. Partly offsetting is lower corn production for Bolivia where the impact of a severe drought during the growing season was worse than previously expected. Russia barley production is lowered based on the latest government statistics. Argentina barley production is lowered on dryness in southern Buenos Aires province during crop heading and grain fill in November and December.

Source: USDA