Less maize, little more wheat and barley

Mainly because of poorer harvests in South Africa and India, the global maize crop is cut by 8m t, to 959m, a 5% y/y (year-on-year) fall. This is only partly compensated by higher output figures than previously for wheat and barley.

Reduced projections for feed

Mostly owing to a reduced projection for feed, total grains consumption is now placed a little lower y/y, at 1,984m t, but still at its second highest level. The reduction is also caused by smaller wheat and barley shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa, as well as reduced sorghum purchases by China.

Forecast for world trade

The forecast for world trade is unchanged from before, with the 2% increase in volumes shaped by China’s needs. Projected global rice output is cut on slightly reduced prospects in some producers, mainly in the southern hemisphere, but, at 473m t, would be only 1% lower y/y. While the outlook for rice use is maintained, a higher figure for carry-in stocks results in a small upward revision to end-season inventories, to 94.7m t. However, this is still a drop of 12% y/y owing to depletion in key exporters. The outlook for trade in 2016 is little changed, at close to 42m t, underpinned by demand from Asian importers. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by 1% since the November report.

Projections 2016/17

While conditions for 2016/17 winter wheat have not been entirely ideal in some regions, global harvest prospects remain mostly favourable. With only a small drop in allwheat area and average yields predicted, world production is tentatively projected 3% down y/y, at 706m t. Because of lower anticipated feed demand, a marginal decline in consumption is expected. Some contraction is possible in end-2016/17 stocks, but inventories could still be the second highest ever. Trade is likely to rise on increased shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa.

Source: IGC