More grain production in 2015/16 season

Unfavourable weather has reduced crop prospects in some regions, especially in the EU (wheat and maize (corn)) and Canada (wheat, barley and oats), but this is outweighed by gains elsewhere, mainly for maize in China and sorghum in the US.

Maize to a new peak

The consumption forecast is adjusted only marginally m/m, and given higher production and opening inventories, the global carryover stocks projection is boosted by 13m t, to 435m, modestly lower y/y (year-on-year). With maize lifted to a new peak and sorghum to around a 30-year high, world trade is raised 2m t m/m, to 312m, down 3% from the 2014/15 record. The projection of world rice production is lowered from June but, with a higher figure for carry-ins, end-season stocks are little changed m/m, at 96m t, a drop of 8% y/y. Most of the fall is due to a 30% contraction in major exporters’ inventories, almost entirely in India and Thailand.

China remains biggest importer

Trade in 2016 is expected to stay high, at close to 42m t, on sustained demand from Africa and Asia due to attractive prices, with China likely to remain the biggest importer. Global soybean output in 2015/16 is seen broadly unchanged m/m, with an anticipated 2% y/y decline resulting from a retreat in average yields in key producers. Owing to a reduction in carry-ins from last month, together with a marginal upgrade for total use, end season carryovers are placed 4m t lower than previously, at 48m. Nevertheless, this would still be a new high, and is linked to an expected 16% increase in major exporters’ stocks. Forecast trade is raised to a peak of 124m t, some 3% higher y/y on expectations of firm demand from China.