Lower Argentinian harvest forecast pushes up prices
In the past week, prices for soybeans on international markets have increased. The price index of the IGC, a measure of the price of soybeans in the world, stood at 310 points on Monday, January 16 (year 2000 = index 100). The price index for soybeans is currently 10% higher than a year ago.
At the end of last week, in the latest Wasde report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised the Argentine crop down by 4 million tons to 45.5 million tons of soybeans for the 2022-23 harvest. Other analysts estimate the Argentine harvest between 37 and 44 million tons.
Drought in Argentina
As a result, the supply on the world market is becoming tighter, resulting in price increases. It looks like Argentina can expect precipitation for the next week, which is very welcome after a very dry spell. Developments in Argentina are being closely monitored, as the drought slowed down the progress of sowing operations.
Larger Brazilian and Chinese harvests
The disappointing Argentinian harvest is partly compensated in the Wasde report by a larger Brazilian and Chinese harvests. Brazil expects a substantial harvest of 153 million tons of soybeans (+1 million tons). Projected global exports for 2022-2023 have been cut by USDA by 1.9 million tons to 167.5 million tons of soybeans. The developments surrounding Covid in China continue to affect the sales market.
Rapeseed
Rapeseed was quoted on the Paris futures market this week at around € 565 per ton. That is slightly higher than last week. Higher palm oil prices in Malaysia are expected to support rapeseed prices in the short term. But the Australian harvest is coming onto the market and could curb price increases.
