Lower harvest estimate supports rapeseed price
Slightly lower harvest expectations in the European Union support the price development of rapeseed. After a small price correction just before and after the weekend, the futures market in Paris started to rise again on Tuesday, May 28.
Futures market trading in Paris lifted the price level above €500 per ton on Tuesday. At least for the delivery contracts from November 2024. For the August contract, the prices are still just below. Last Thursday, May 23, the limit of €500 per ton for August also came within reach, but that level was missed by a hair. Then, after a nice rise, profit-taking led to somewhat lower prices. On Tuesday, May 28, the price rose again with prices of around €493 per ton.
Rapeseed harvest slightly lower than expected
According to a new harvest forecast report by Mars from the JRC crop monitoring committee of the European Commission, rapeseed yields this year are slightly smaller than expected in April. With an average of 3.21 tons per hectare, the Mars report now assumes normal yields compared to last year.
Only in Spain are significantly higher than average yields predicted. However, with barely 2.5 tons per hectare on an area of about 45,000 hectares, Spanish production is dwarfed by the rapeseed coming in from France and Germany.
More rapeseed in France and Ukraine
In France the harvest seems to be slightly larger than last year. At 1.33 million hectares (source: Agreste), the area is slightly smaller than last year, but according to Mars the yields will increase to 3.27 tons per hectare. This results in a production of approximately 4.3 million tons. In Germany, rapeseed bloomed relatively early this year, but yields of 3.5 tons per hectare are still somewhat behind last year (-2%) according to the estimate in the Mars report. A year ago an average harvest came from the land.
In Ukraine, rapeseed production appears to be somewhat higher than expected earlier this season. The Ukrainian grain federation UGA is now aiming for a total harvest of 4.3 million tons. That amount is comparable to last year. Nevertheless, according to this organisation, slightly less rapeseed will be available for export. This export expectation drops from 3.6 to 3.4 million tons. This is important for the European Union, because Ukraine is an important supplier to fill shortages in the EU.
