Tariffs, weather and Russian wheat exports all impact global grain market
The export quota for Russian wheat, which will come into effect from February 15, will delay deliveries. Analysts also expect that Russian exporters will charge higher prices. That will support the EU market.
EU considers additional duties on Russian imports
The European Commission wants to impose additional import duties on fertilizer and a number of agricultural products, including wheat, from Russia and Belarus (Belarus). The committee wants to slow down these imports. This has hardly any consequences for the export of Russian wheat to the EU. As Russian wheat is mainly exported to countries in North Africa.
Weather Challenges
Russia: The weather issues in Russia have also prompted Russian consultancy IKAR cut its 2025 wheat production estimates by 2 million tonnes to 77 million tonnes in a pessimistic scenario. In an optimistic scenario, production would amount to 87 million tons, instead of the previously expected 89 million tons.
USA: The cold wave that hit the US Midwest at the end of January did not cause serious damage, which means there is no added advantage for US wheat prices. It appears that the wheat harvest in the US will be ‘normal’.
Impact of US import duties unclear
Yet the grain market remains unpredictable. The consequences of the American import duties will become clear in the coming weeks. Countries facing higher tariffs could respond with countermeasures on US. agricultural products, including wheat. So far there is no sign of this. The US Export Inspection Report for the week ending Feb. 6 shows a total of 536,217 tons of wheat shipped. This is more than double the previous week and 32% more than the same week last year.
