Turbulent picture for global wheat market
The market is struggling with large exports from Russia and Ukraine. Recent estimates and customs data show that both countries have already shipped abroad almost half of the available quantities for the entire season in the first 4 months of the marketing year, Kaack-Terminhandel reported early this week.
Globally, the supply of wheat is not plentiful. Moreover, conditions for the 2025 harvest leave much to be desired in many countries.
US: 2nd worst harvest in 40 years
In the US, growers are struggling with precipitation. The October USDA report, released early this week, shows that only 38% of U.S. winter wheat is good to excellent. That is the second worst harvest assessment in almost 40 years.
Russia: Delayed delivery to Egypt
In Russia they experience problems with drought. In addition, the delivery of 430,000 tons of Russian wheat to Egypt is delayed, which means Egypt may have to turn to suppliers from other countries.
Australia: Harvest shows improvement
Wheat production in Australia will reach an estimated 28.5 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts. In a forecast for Australia, Rabobank assumes a harvest of 27.5 million tons of wheat, which is an improvement compared to last season, but 8% below the 5-year average.
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