USDA forecast: More corn and less wheat available

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the availability of soybeans to be roughly equal to the outlook outlined in the January forecast. The USDA publishes the Wasde report every month, which provides an overview of the world’s supply and demand for key agricultural commodities.

Excess of wheat, shortage of corn

For wheat, the USDA estimates production in the current 2020-21 season of 773 million tons, while consuming about 769 million tons. There is still a surplus, the USDA concludes, but supply and demand are increasingly converging as this season progresses.

The USDA still assumes a significant deficit for corn. The production of 1.134 million tons is nowhere near enough to cover the expected consumption of 1.151 million tons. As a result, corn has become considerably more expensive in recent months and the wheat price has increased with it.

Soybeans more expensive

For soybeans, the USDA also expects production (361 million tons) this season to be insufficient to meet demand (370 million tons). Soybeans have also become considerably more expensive in recent months.

The USDA estimated the availability of corn to be much higher than analysts had expected. Some analysts saw this as a correction to January’s Wasde report. After the publication of the Wasde report, corn quotas fell on the Chicago futures market. These also pushed the wheat quotations somewhat lower. Soybeans also became cheaper in Chicago.